Value to Customer Calculator (VTC)
Quantify your product’s value. In dollars. Defensibly.
A custom Monte Carlo–modeled ROI calculator that turns your product’s mechanism into the number that closes enterprise deals.
Used by Pixee. Built with Hubbard Decision Research.
The methodology
Nick + Doug Hubbard, on how VTC works.
16 minutes of the joint methodology behind the calculator — calibrated estimation, Monte Carlo modeling, and how to convert your product’s mechanism into a number a CISO will defend on a board slide.
What makes it different
Three things every VTC build delivers.
Defensible numbers, not projections.
Monte Carlo simulations modeled with HDR’s calibrated estimation methodology. Quantified uncertainty, ranges instead of point estimates, every input traceable to a source.
Built on operator judgment.
Nick spent 15 years as the buyer for cybersecurity products at Silicon Valley Bank. The model encodes how real CSOs and procurement actually evaluate ROI — not how vendors wish they did.
Customized to your product’s mechanism.
Vulnerability remediation, threat detection, identity, compliance, AppSec — different products create value through different paths. Each VTC is tailored to your product’s specific value chain, not templated.
See how it works
Try a simplified version.
Pick a product category to load realistic defaults, or move the sliders directly. The real calculator runs hundreds of variables — this teaser shows the shape of the output your sales team walks into the room with.
The actual product
Inside the calculator.
The deployed tool runs on Streamlit, exports board-ready PDF reports, and customizes inputs per customer. Three views, in sequence: what your buyer sees on intake, how the model decomposes their value, and the distribution your sales team walks into the room with.
Inputs
Calibrated against your customer’s reality.
Primary inputs at the top: annual revenue, industry, useful life. Each industry pulls its own breach-frequency factor from IRIS data — manufacturing isn’t banking isn’t healthcare. Advanced inputs (Level 2) drop down for the variables only your product’s mechanism touches.
Decomposition
Value mix, traceable to source.
Two donuts and a per-component table. Every dollar of modeled NPV maps back to a specific value driver — incident response, avoided breach loss, audit efficiency, penalty avoidance. When your buyer asks “where does this number come from?”, the answer is on screen.
Distribution
NPV distribution + loss exceedance — the Monte Carlo proof.
The histogram shows the distribution of modeled NPV outcomes (5th to 95th percentile); the curve shows residual vs. inherent loss exceedance probability at every threshold. This is where the qualitative-risk-theater conversation ends and the defensible-numbers conversation begins.
The deliverable
A board-ready PDF, branded for your customer.
Every VTC build exports a multi-page report your sales team can hand to a CFO. Customer’s logo on the cover, your evidence in the body, the methodology cited at the back. Scroll the actual sample below.
Customer in production
Pixee runs VTC live on their pricing page.
Pixee was the first beta customer for the calculator. They embedded a customized version directly into their pricing page so prospects can input their own context and see the value calculation in real time. Their sales team walks into discovery calls already knowing what an enterprise prospect’s VTC looks like.
See Pixee’s live deployment (opens in a new tab)
“Our enterprise sales cycle compressed by weeks once prospects could see the risk-quantified ROI on their own deal’s shape. The calculator made the value conversation defensible from the first call.”
— Pixee leadership [placeholder — await real quote]
How a build works
From discovery to deployment, in 6–8 weeks.
Every build follows the same arc — tailored to your product, calibrated against your real customer scenarios, delivered with your sales team trained to use it.
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Discovery
We sit with your product team and your sales leaders. Map your product’s value-creation paths, your typical enterprise deal shape, and the customer profile your hardest deals get stuck on.
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Modeling
HDR builds the Monte Carlo simulation specific to your product mechanism. Calibrated estimation across every variable — frequencies, severities, time-savings, compliance offsets. Sourced, defensible inputs.
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Calibration
Test the model against real customer scenarios — deals you’ve closed, deals you lost, deals in flight. Iterate until the numbers match the operator intuition. Train your sales team on the calibrated estimation discipline.
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Delivery + ops
Branded deployment, sales team onboarding, board-ready PDF templates. Quarterly model refreshes for the first year so the calculator evolves with your product roadmap.
Why it’s defensible
Built on Hubbard’s methodology, grounded in operator judgment.
HDR’s quantitative rigor
Doug Hubbard wrote How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk. His firm trains calibrated estimation through the AIE Academy and runs Monte Carlo models for governments, insurers, and Fortune 100 risk teams. Every VTC build inherits that methodology.
Nick’s buyer perspective
15 years as the buyer at Silicon Valley Bank means the model captures how procurement actually evaluates security spend — not how vendors wish they did. Risk theater gets cut. Defensible numbers go in.
“If you can’t quantify it, you can’t govern it. Boards don’t want vibes. They want a number you can defend.”
— Nick Shevelyov
VTC by the numbers
Average modeled customer NPV per built scenario
Average ROI multiple across delivered models
Typical build, discovery to delivery
Common questions
Before you book a call.
Why not just build this in Excel ourselves?
Spreadsheets handle math, not credibility. HDR’s methodology adds calibrated estimation training, Monte Carlo distributions, and sourced evidence — the things a CFO actually cross-examines. A homegrown spreadsheet gets challenged on every input. A VTC build comes with the methodology citations baked in.
What’s customized vs. templated?
The model architecture is templated (Monte Carlo, calibrated estimation, NPV/ROI outputs). The variables, value paths, and inputs are 100% customized to your product. A vulnerability remediation product and a compliance product have completely different value chains — we don’t pretend otherwise.
Who owns the model after delivery?
You do. Source code, the calibration database, the PDF templates — all transferred to your team at delivery. We retain no IP claim on your custom build. HDR’s methodology stays HDR’s; your model stays yours.
Can we update it as our product evolves?
Yes — and you should. The first year of delivery includes quarterly refreshes (we recalibrate as your product mechanism changes). After that, your team can update inputs directly, or we can re-engage on a fractional basis if you ship a major capability change.
How does it integrate with our sales process?
Sales reps run the calculator on a discovery call and walk away with a customer-branded PDF inside 48 hours. Some teams embed it as a self-serve widget on their pricing page (like Pixee). Others keep it internal as a sales-enablement tool. Both work.
What does it cost?
Engagements start at $40K for a 6-week build with quarterly refreshes for the first year. Larger scope (multiple product lines, custom integrations, sales training) scales from there. Schedule a call and we’ll scope against your specifics.
Start your custom VTC build.
Bring your product, your typical deal, and your hardest customer. We’ll walk through the model and show what your sales team gets at the end of a 6–8 week build.
